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Re: [econmod] Crude Oil to Hit 100/barrel before 2008?
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Blah blah blah, peak this peak that. Fact is we'll see 100 oil, sure, that's just scarcity. Will we see it before 2008? I highly doubt that. Plus, OPEC HAS the oil, they just don't want to lift it. Plain and simple, the cartel refuses to increases supply. Not that we have the production capacity to support it.
Ah yes, the reasoned, rational response to uncomfortable facts. I guess my chart touched a nerve, huh?
Saudi Arabia, the 800 lb. gorilla of OPEC, started seeing a production decline in April, 2006, a good 6 months before OPEC's official cuts in November. Many people think those cuts were cover for KSA'a natural depletion. Many people think Gwahar's production is crashing as is Cantarell in Mexico and Burgan in Kuwait. The North Sea is down 15% and Alaska is down 12.5% over last year. This ain't no party, this ain't no disco, this ain't no fooling around. This is when nature meets economics, and it's not going to be pretty.
Oh, this song and dance they're doing about "refinery capacity" is more BS. In reality, the problems with refineries breaking down is that they're trying to process heavier crude oil, which needs higher temperatures and more pressure in the vessels. Of course, this causes leaks, fires and blowouts and "unscheduled maintenance".
And I hear there's a tropical wave off South America known as Invest 99L, which could spin up into a hurricane in a few days. That should be interesting...
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joewp
Teller
Jul 31, 2007, 9:40 PM
Post #4 of 7
(2221 views)
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